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Post by Michael Wilbur-Ham on May 3, 2013 9:35:20 GMT 10
If you accept the big picture of climate change then an important next step is to determine the feasibility or otherwise of moving to zero emissions for Australia's stationary energy. (If you don't accept the big picture presented in the IPCC, Stern and Garnaut reports you can discuss this here.) As the opening of Roger Dargaville's article on The Conversation says: His article - Zero emissions power is possible, and we know what it will cost - argues that we know that this can be done and we even have a reasonable idea of the costs. This thread is for discussing the technical feasibility of moving to zero emissions and the economic costs. This thread is NOT for deciding what to do - it merely informs the policy makers to assist them to set policy. If you accept that it is technically possible for Australia to reduce its emissions from stationary energy supplies by close to 80% by 2050, and that the likely costs of 100% renewable systems is between $100 and $170/MWh then you can move straight on to the policy discussion here. Roger Dargaville's article is a good summary of what is known now. Is this right? Or is he unduly optimistic or pessimistic? PS - Any discussion of nuclear is off-topic for this thread (I'll create some threads just for discussing nuclear one day soon).
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Post by Michael Wilbur-Ham on May 3, 2013 14:04:39 GMT 10
It is worth remember that moving towards 100% renewables with a target of about 80% renewable by 2050 leaves the hardest part - the last 20% - to after 2050. It is pretty certain that any forecast of how this last 20% will be done and what is will cost will be wrong.
Similarly how we go from 50% renewable up to 80% renewable is really a problem for the future. These reports suggest how we could do this using technology close to that of todays, so the reports tell us that this cut is practicable. But beyond that it is really an issue to be sorted out after 2020.
Where the proposed solutions and cost forecasts are most likely to be accurate is when looking at the next big step of increasing the share of energy generation by renewable by another 20%.
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